The so-called “TVOS Wars” might sound like something George Lucas would’ve dreamt up in his heyday, but make no mistake—this isn’t a Star Wars sequel. The battlefield? Our living rooms. The players? Roku, Samsung, Amazon, and, trailing behind with style but fewer wins, Apple TV. The prize? A multibillion-dollar market for programmatic Connected TV (CTV) advertising, which, according to eMarketer, will hit $28 billion in the U.S. alone by the end of this year. It’s a gold rush, and everyone wants their pickaxe in the pile. So why is Roku, the long-reigning monarch of CTV, suddenly finding its crown slipping?
Roku’s Tumble: A Crowded Field or an Empty Throne?
Pixalate, a watchdog for CTV ecosystems, recently unveiled their third-quarter 2024 report, and, well, let’s just say Roku’s numbers tell a story of a kingdom on the defensive. Roku’s share of the North American market took a nosedive, dropping from 53% last year to a not-so-comfortable 37%. Samsung trails at a distant but ambitious 17%, while Amazon Fire TV made a head-turning leap to 15% with a 40% growth year-over-year. Apple TV, always more about aesthetics than ad heft, is flexing its muscles too, growing by 63% to an 11% share.
“The CTV market expanding,” as Pixalate’s VP of Platform Growth & Research, Tyler Loechner, notes, is a polite way of saying Roku’s not the only show in town anymore. Loechner also commented that the likes of Samsung and Amazon are “catching up” after lagging in ad strategy. Translation: while Roku basked in its own glory, the other platforms were out getting smart and getting competitive.
Latin America Loves Roku, but EMEA Says, “Hard Pass”
Roku’s stronghold isn’t entirely crumbling. In Latin America, Roku’s a bona fide sensation, capturing a whopping 50% of the CTV ad market share—a stark contrast to its 28% last year. Samsung trails here too, but not without bruises, losing a startling 47% of its SOV year-over-year.
The real showdown, however, is in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). Here, Samsung reigns supreme, grabbing 30% of the market, with Amazon Fire TV, LG, TCL, and even Sony taking larger chunks than Roku’s meager 5% share. A far cry from its North American dominance, where Roku commands over a third of the open programmatic CTV ad market.
And the shifts are seismic. In EMEA, Samsung’s share shot up 52%, cementing it as the top dog, while Amazon and Roku both took a backslide. “Samsung maintains strong competition through its broad international reach,” says Omdia’s Maria Rua Aguete. Meanwhile, Roku’s EMEA standing looks like an afterthought at best—a blip on the radar of a market it can’t quite crack.
Amazon Fire and Apple TV: Roku’s Unlikely Archrivals
While Roku enjoys its North American throne, it’s got a few wolves at the door. Amazon Fire TV and Apple TV aren’t just gunning for more eyeballs; they’re crafting ad strategies that make Roku’s once-formidable lead look shaky. Amazon grew its market share by 40% in North America, and Apple TV by a cool 63%, meaning they’re taking viewers Roku probably once thought were lifers.
Add to this that CTV ad spend is set to double over the next few years, and it’s clear that Roku’s sitting on a very appealing target. Samsung, for one, is eyeing that target with the intensity of a cat on a mouse hunt, planning to more than double its revenues from CTV ads, from $1.35 billion this year to $3 billion by 2029. Meanwhile, Roku is projected to rake in $5.1 billion by then, but who’s to say Samsung, Amazon, or even Walmart’s newly acquired Vizio won’t disrupt that narrative?
And Then… Roku Dropped the Ball (Or Rather, the Metrics)
So, with all this at stake, how does Roku respond? By taking a page out of Netflix’s playbook, but without Netflix’s finesse. During their recent earnings call, Roku threw a curveball by announcing they’d stop reporting on streaming household metrics—effective immediately. This announcement came on the heels of what should have been a record-breaking moment: their first billion-dollar revenue quarter, a 16% increase in total revenue, and an 82% leap over Wall Street’s expectations on net income. Wall Street should’ve been singing Roku’s praises. Instead, they dropped Roku stock by 13%. Why? Because Roku announced the reporting change like they were declaring a snow day—no heads up, no slow rollout. Investors, naturally, were left feeling blindsided.
For comparison, Netflix announced a similar change, but with a full year’s lead time. By the time the reporting shift hit, Wall Street had already digested the news, resulting in a 12% stock jump on positive earnings. Roku, on the other hand, did it out of nowhere, resulting in headlines like, “Roku Q3 Earnings Top Estimates, Company to Stop Reporting Streaming Households Metric.” More than half of those words spell out “Bad News.”
“Roku controls 50% of CTV households in the U.S.—an enormous advantage in the world’s biggest ad market,” media cartographer Evan Shapiro pointed out in a recent LinkedIn post. But as Shapiro put it, “Roku is REALLY BAD at framing its results.” He’s not wrong. For all Roku’s success, it lacks Netflix’s mastery in corporate obfuscation, resulting in self-inflicted stock stumbles.
Enter: The Trade Desk, Taking the Fight Directly to Roku
If the existing contenders weren’t enough, here’s another potential disruptor: The Trade Desk. The advertising tech giant is setting its sights on creating its own operating system, which could reshape the CTV landscape entirely. With The Trade Desk’s OS, advertisers could reach audiences more directly, potentially bypassing Roku, Samsung, and Amazon altogether. The Trade Desk’s move isn’t just about participating; it’s about redefining the playing field itself.
In essence, The Trade Desk’s strategy acknowledges a core frustration in the industry: the lack of cross-platform, audience-centric ad buys that are both scalable and measurable across multiple CTV providers. Roku’s market share doesn’t seem as unassailable when a tech behemoth steps into the ring with a plan to provide an OS that would make it easier, cheaper, and more effective for advertisers to reach their target audiences.
Roku’s entire value proposition—to serve as the gatekeeper to North American audiences—gets called into question when The Trade Desk offers a new path to those same viewers.
So, What’s Next in the TVOS Wars?
In the big picture, Roku’s dominance isn’t guaranteed. With programmatic CTV ad spend climbing 23.3% this year to $24 billion, and upfront TV ad deals now representing nearly half of all CTV spend, the stakes are higher than ever. If Roku wants to keep winning, it’ll need to master the game of corporate strategy—and maybe take some PR lessons from Netflix while they’re at it. Otherwise, Samsung, Amazon, and even Walmart’s Vizio could find ways to eat into Roku’s lunch.
Or, as Shapiro cheekily suggests, maybe Roku just needs to get better at messaging. After all, what good is a kingdom if you can’t convince Wall Street to buy into it? Stay tuned, because in the TVOS Wars, the only constant is that everyone’s ready to backstab their way to the top.
